1. US Adults' Party Identification and Leaning in Presidential Election Years
- Figures are the average party identification and leaning in the third quarter (July-September of each election year
2. Americans's Opinions of Which Political Party Is Better Able to Keep the US Prosperous
- Looking ahead for the next few years, which political party do you think will do a better job of keeping the country prosperous - [ROTATED: the Republican Party or the Democratic Party]?
3. Americans' Issue Concerns In March 2024
- Next, I'm going to read a list of problems facing the country. For each one, please tell me if you personally worry about this problem a great deal, a fair amount, only a little or no at all?
4. Americans' Unprompted Views of Nation's Top Problem
- What do you think is the most important problem facing this country today? [Open-ended]
5. Issue Concerns by Party ID
- Next, I'm going to read a list of problems facing the country. For each one, please tell me if you personally worry about this problem a great deal, a fair amount, only a little or not at all? % A great deal
6. US National Debt Over the Last 100 years
- Inflation Adjusted -2023 Dollars
7. Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis via FRED(https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A091RC1Q027SBEA)
8. Source: Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 2024 (https://www.govinfo.gov/app/details/BUDGET-2024-TAB/BUDGET-2024-TAB-6-1)
9. Source: US Custom and Border Protection(https://www.cbp.gov/document/stats/nationwide-encounters)
10. Issue Concerns by Party ID
- Next, I'm going to read a list of problems facing the country. For each one, please tell me if you personally worry about this problem a great deal, a fair amount, only a little or not at all? %A great deal
Americans are shifting from Democrats to Republicans.
//Summary - Level-C2//
The recent data suggests a notable shift in American political support, with Republicans overtaking Democrats for the first time since 1992. This shift, driven by concerns about inflation, immigration, crime, and government leadership, is reflected in growing support for the Republican Party. Independents and former Democrats are increasingly leaning Republican, indicating a potential victory for Republicans in upcoming elections.
1)
This time, we look at the November US presidential election data. Other local elections will also be held.
Will the Republican or Democratic candidate win?
How do ordinary US citizens feel about Republicans and Democrats right now? Based on this data, I would like to explain a little.
2)
This year, from July to September 2024, will you support the Republican Party? Or will you support the Democratic Party? That is the question.
Basically, from 1992 to 2024, there are more and more people who say they are Democrats.
That doesn't mean that the Democratic Party has always won the election. When you take this poll, more people say they are the Democratic Party than the Republican Party.
However, the most recent data for 2024 shows a different situation than usual.
3)
00:59
This survey is usually conducted between July and September, just before an election, and this is the first time since 1992 that the number of Republicans has increased more than the number of Democrats.
Just before an election, the gap between Democrats and Republicans is always higher for the Democrats. Still, as that gap narrows, it becomes easier for a Republican president to be elected.
4)
For example, around 2000, support for the Republican Party increased a little, and in 2004, Bush Jr. became president during this election. He is a Republican.
After that, the gap widened again in 2008, and it was pretty significant, but that's when President Obama became the Democratic president.
It's the same in 2012, but the gap has narrowed a little, and President Obama, a Democrat, has been elected.
5)
After that, when former President Trump was elected, the gap between Democrats and Republicans narrowed considerably.
So basically, if the gap narrows, the Republican becomes the next president.
If the gap widens, the next president will be a Democrat.
6)
02:01
But this is the first time the Republicans have overtaken the Democrats.
I think this data can be used as an indicator.
7)
Then, in the same report, there was another exciting chart.
It was an interview about which party, the Democrats or the Republicans, better reflected this America.
For a long time, it was the Republicans and the Democrats.
But if you look at recent times, the Republicans have generally been on top.
8)
The Democrats were slightly higher in the last election, 2020, while the Republicans tended to be on the rise.
However, there was a time when the Democrats went even higher.
This time, the Republicans are firmly in the lead. If you look at this chart, when the Republicans are at the top, the Republican presidential candidate becomes president.
Based on past data, we can predict that a Republican will also become president this time, i.e., Trump will likely become president.
9)
02:58
Let's examine why this is happening and why the Republicans are popular with Americans.
It's a different report, but the same Gallup came out with data again around March, and I asked, "What's the problem right now?"
10)
The American people are this inflation.
Prices have increased significantly from last year to this year, and "inflation" is a problem.
And then there's "crime". It says "violence and crime", but that is also a problem.
11)
There is "hunger and homelessness". Prices are rising, and people can't even afford to eat. Then, the number of homeless people has increased.
Next is "the economy", with economic problems at the top.
12)
03:54
This gives you a choice and asks, "What is your biggest problem?" There is a similar question, but it asks you to write freely.
The biggest problem Americans are worried about is "immigration". This is immigration.
13)
Right now, since the Biden administration came into office, a large number of illegal immigrants are pouring in from the South. theseSouthgal immigrants are originally coming into southern states like Texas and New Mexico, and they are being sent all over the country without us even knowing.
This is also a big problem in Democratic cities like Chicago and New York.
14)
Then you write about government and poor leadership, but basically, "the government has no leadership." President Biden seems to have dementia. He can't answer questions, and he fell down the stairs. I'm sure many of you have seen the video.
15)
04:51
There are many problems, like the economy and national defence, especially immigrants flooding the South.
Then, there is the war in Ukraine and the Middle East.
The current government cannot solve problems in these areas, and I don't feel like they're doing anything better.
Then there is the economy. Inflation is a particular problem.
16)
What is the problem? I interviewed or polled people by political party.
The red ones are Republicans, the ones in the middle are Independents, and the ones on the far right who say they are Democrats are supporters of the Democratic Party.
17)
First of all, Republicans say that the way the federal government spends money, or the budget, is currently in the red. They think the problem is the ever-increasing debt.
Republicans who want a smaller government are, of course, the biggest problem with this.
18)
05:47
Then there's illegal immigration.
Then there's inflation, the economy and crime. Republicans are worried about these things.
In fact, in the US, the national debt is growing incredibly.
19)
It's now 33 trillion dollars. That's an astronomical amount of money.
Even more problematic is that the federal government has debt; to repay that debt, it must pay interest.
These interest payments are increasing incredibly, partly because of a recent release.
20)
Even based on past trends, something seems to have changed since 2021 because the debt has grown so much.
In fact, the US government's payments on this debt have already exceeded its defence budget.
21)
06:46
The US defence budget is by far the largest in the world.
The amount being paid now exceeds that.
Suppose you look at the chart on illegal immigration. In that case, the apprehensions are of people who have entered illegally and been apprehended, so I think, in reality, many more people are entering.
However, the number of apprehensions has increased significantly in the two and three years since 2021, which is three years ago.
22)
In other words, since the Biden administration has been in power, illegal immigration has increased by leaps and bounds and is out of control.
So, the American people are very concerned about it.
Republicans, in particular, are very concerned about it.
23)
What are the issues that concern non-Republicans? First, for Democrats, the number one issue is whether they can afford health insurance.
The second is poverty and homelessness.
24)
07:43
The third issue is race relations. Black-white issues are the third issue.
The fourth is the global environment.
25)
Then, independents are concerned about poverty and homelessness.
Then inflation, health insurance, crime and the economy.
Democrats are concerned about race and the global environment, but independents and Republicans don't consider them very important.
26)
08:40
More and more people in the general public support the Republican Party.
This is quite a historical shift.
It's pretty standard for people who were originally Republicans to become Republicans and people who were originally Democrats to become Democrats.
27)
In the middle of all this, independents in the middle and former Democrats are increasingly moving towards the Republican Party.
I think that is a big trend right now.
I wouldn't know what will happen in the election.
Probability-wise, assuming the election is fair, I think the Republican Party will win big.
This time, I will use Gallup poll data to explain the phenomenon in the US regarding who will win the US presidential election next month: the Democrats or the Republicans.
Americans are shifting from Democrats to Republicans
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AxHrcsC00xc
The Truth About the Russia-Ukraine War and the Hamas-Israel War
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aXr5tIKOIf4
Add info No1)
What can be said for sure is that JD Vance won by a landslide with his best performance!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bm-TqmM7Y-o
CBS News Vice Presidential Debate Simulcast
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V_iebgmV1Qc
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X2r1heFjVrU
[Vance vs. Walz] US Vice Presidential Candidates Television Debate (First Half) ◆ Japanese subtitles by CapCut & Claude [AI subtitles]
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fgrSPhWZB4Y
Add info No2)
Assange: "I chose freedom over justice" Testifies at Council of Europe, first time since release
https://www.jiji.com/jc/article?k=2024100100856&g=int
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ai34Uxnv_4s
Julian Assange, the former defendant in the US classified information leak case and founder of whistleblower website WikiLeaks, who was released in June, testified at a hearing at the Council of Europe (Strasbourg, France) on the 1st. This was the first time he had spoken publicly since his release. "In the end, I chose freedom over impossible justice," he said, revealing the situation in which he had no choice but to accept a guilty verdict and agree to a plea bargain to be released from prison.
'I chose freedom over justice' says Julian Assange | REUTERS
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nJtyGFl__Ls
00:01
I eventually chose Freedom over unrealizable Justice after being detained for years and facing 175 years sentence with no effective remedy.
Justice for me is now precluded as the US government insisted in writing into its plea agreement that I cannot file a case at the European Court of Human Rights or even a Freedom of Information Act request over what did to me as a result of its Expedition request.
I want to be totally clear I am not free today because the system worked. I am free today after years of incarceration because I plad guilty to journalism.
00:48
I plead guilty to seeking information from a source I plead guilty to obtaining information from a source and I plead guilty to inform ining the public what that information was.
I did not plead guilty to anything else I hope my testimony today can serve to highlight the weakness.
The weaknesses of the existing safeguards and to help those whose cases are less visible but who are equally vulnerable.
Julian Paul Assange - Wikipedia
Julian Paul Assange took refuge in the Ecuadorian Embassy in London for about seven years but was arrested by British police in April 2019.
Release:
In June 2024, he appeared in federal court on the US territory of Saipan and pleaded guilty to violating the Espionage Act. The judge sentenced him to five years and two months in prison but simultaneously stated that he was freed because the time he had served in the UK had been credited for his time in jail in a plea bargain. This marked the end of his 12 years of exile and imprisonment since 2012.
Add info No3)
[Vance vs Walz] US Vice Presidential Candidates Television Debate (First Half) ◆ Japanese subtitles by CapCut & Claude [AI subtitles]
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fgrSPhWZB4Y
[Vance vs Walz] US Vice Presidential Candidates Television Debate (Second Half) ◆ Japanese subtitles by CapCut & Claude [AI subtitles]
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GwUUmoCY1xY&t=329s
Add info No4)
Tens of thousands of illegal immigrants with sexual assault, murder convictions in US: ICE data
ICE provided the new data to lawmakers this week
TWD #28 - Why the news coming from America always leans towards the Democrats
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MNHa-mTH43A
[European Politics] Anti-immigration sentiment on the rise in Austria! What will happen to the EU?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uow0SCn4vUM
Why We Left The Democrat Party, And You Should Too
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PhApKit-Smo
"The our party was a party of Tolerance and today the Democratic party is the party of hatred and Division."
