Myanmar military mired in a dilemma, and civilian casualties continue to rise; pro-democracy armed groups resist with home-made mortars, 3rd anniversary of the coup - 28 January 2024
//Summary - Level-C2//
Three years after Myanmar's military coup on 1 February 2021, the conflict continues with no resolution in sight. Ethnic and pro-democracy groups, including the People's Defence Forces (PDF), continue armed resistance, some making their weapons. Civilian casualties rise amid the military's air supremacy and multi-front operations, including the burning of houses to quell opposition. A China-brokered ceasefire has failed to halt the fighting, with civilian displacement reaching 2.3 million since the coup. Despite some military defections and low morale, the military's control remains in question.
1)
1 February marks three years since the Myanmar military coup. Ethnic minority armed groups and pro-democracy armed groups, the People's Defence Forces (PDF), continue to resist in various parts of the country, with some units even making their weapons.
The embattled military is expected to extend the state of emergency, which expires at the end of January, for another six months. There is no end in sight to the number of civilians caught up in the fighting and no end to the civil war in sight.
2)
Myanmar coup On 1 February 2021, the Myanmar military arrested pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi and others on the pretext of fraud in the previous year's general election.
He declared a state of emergency and assumed full power. Civilian protests have turned into armed struggle, and fighting with the national army continues in various places.
3)
"Recently, military units have stopped coming out of their bases for fear of guerrilla attacks.
Mr Takinji (24), a member of a small PDF unit based in northern Sagaing region, explains the war situation.
He is said to ambush the national army when it comes out of his outpost and launch guerrilla attacks in cooperation with other PDF forces.
4)
Mr Takinji's unit has about 30 men but only three automatic rifles. They make their own mortars and rocket launchers to compensate for the lack of weapons. I learnt about the manufacturing method by watching overseas video posting sites and learning from other units I work with.
Using readily available materials such as iron pipes and clandestinely obtained gunpowder, they have improved their accuracy and range through repeated trial and error.
5)
There is also hope that we can overthrow the military government.
Takinji points out that Operation 1027, a simultaneous attack by ethnic armed groups in October last year in northeastern Shan State, which borders China, was a turning point. It gave many citizens hope that we might be able to overthrow the military government," he says. It also boosted the morale of our troops.
In Operation 1027, three armed groups, including the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), which aims to overthrow the military regime, occupied more than 400 military outposts. It also controls over a dozen towns, including Laukai, the centre of the Kokang Autonomous Region in Shan State.
The front has expanded into several areas, including Chin State in the northwest, Rakhine State in the west and Sagaing region in the north. The military and three armed groups reached a temporary ceasefire agreement brokered by China on the 11th of this month, but fighting has continued since then.
6)
Air strikes, shelling and burning of houses to suppress resistance forces
The national military has gained air supremacy and consolidated its control, especially in urban areas, but faces an uphill battle as it is forced to conduct multi-front operations. The surrender of national military units is also continuing.
A local official said: "The resignation and defection of troops, including high-ranking officers, has lowered the morale of ordinary soldiers, and regime supporters have doubts about General Min Aung Hlaing's ability to govern."
The official also said: "The military is facing its biggest challenge since the coup." To crush the resistance, the military has frequently used air strikes and heavy artillery fire and has not shied away from burning civilian homes.
7)
Civilian casualties continue to rise
As a result, civilian casualties continue to rise. According to the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), by the end of last year, some 2.3 million people had been forced to flee their homes since the coup. Of these, an estimated 628,000 were displaced due to Operation 1027.
According to the research group Data for Myanmar, 78,737 houses had been destroyed by fire by the end of last year. Commenting on the burning of private homes by the military, PDF member Choji (26) said, ``The military is trying to divide the residents and the PDF, threatening the residents saying, "Your house will be burned because of the PDF" and discouraging them from supporting the PDF. "I am trying to stop this," he growled.
Myanmar's military is mired in a quagmire; civilian casualties continue to increase; pro-democracy armed groups resist with home-made mortars, 3rd anniversary of coup d'état - 28 January 2024
https://www.tokyo-np.co.jp/article/305655
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Myanmar's army loses - and comes under fire from militant monk
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-68038513
//Summary - Level-C2//
In Myanmar, the military's declining performance in fighting ethnic insurgents has led to criticism from unexpected sources, including ultra-nationalist Buddhist monk Pauk Ko Taw. He suggests that military leader Min Aung Hlaing should step aside for his deputy. The criticism reflects growing frustration within the military's traditional support base as the army suffers setbacks and loses territory to ethnic armies. The situation has led to internal divisions, with some monks forming armed militias, but these efforts have been largely ineffective against widespread opposition to military rule. The army's morale is collapsing, and despite Min Aung Hlaing's attempts to maintain control, the regime faces an uncertain future.
A)
Last Tuesday, a noisy crowd of several hundred people stood in the small main square of Pyin Oo Lwin, a famous hill town in Myanmar, to hear a bespectacled monk make a startling suggestion.
Min Aung Hlaing, the country's military ruler, should step aside and let his deputy, General Soe Win, take over.
The man who led the coup against the elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi in 2021, sparking a disastrous civil war, has faced much international condemnation and is loathed by much of Myanmar's population.
But this criticism has come from an unlikely source. The monk, Pauk Ko Taw, is part of an ultra-nationalist fringe of the Buddhist clergy that has staunchly backed the military junta.
But a series of crushing defeats suffered by the army at the hands of ethnic insurgents in recent weeks has caused Min Aung Hlaing's former cheerleaders to reconsider.
B)
Running out of friends
"Look at Soe Win's face," Pauk Ko Taw told the crowd. "That is the face of a true soldier. Min Aung Hlaing is not up to it. He should change to a civilian role.
It is unclear what kind of support Pauk Ko Taw has in the armed forces. But his comments echo those of other junta supporters who are increasingly frustrated by the seeming inability of Myanmar's military leaders to turn the tide against their opponents. Pauk Ko Taw declined to be interviewed by BBC Burmese.
The fact that he chose to deliver his speech in Pyin Oo Lwin will have added weight. The former British colonial hill station is now home to the prestigious Defence Services Academy, which trains the army's top brass. It was hard for them to miss the thinly veiled warning that they were running out of friends.
C)
The nexus between the military and the monkhood is nothing new.
Burmese monks have a long tradition of political activism, often anti-authoritarian, from the anti-colonial movements of the 1930s to the uprisings against military rule in 1988 and 2007. Many opposed the 2021 coup, and some took off their robes to take up arms against the junta.
However, some have worked with the generals, sharing their belief that Buddhism and Burmese culture must be defended from outside influences.
After violent clashes between local Buddhists and Muslim Rohingyas in Rakhine state in 2012, one militant monk, Wirathu, helped found a movement known as Ma Ba Tha, or the Association for the Protection of Race and Religion.
D)
It encouraged a boycott of Muslim-owned businesses, claiming that Burmese Buddhism was in danger of being wiped out by Muslims. But they make up just 8% of Myanmar's population. The movement was officially disbanded in 2017 but continues to enjoy military support.
Wirathu, who had previously been jailed for inciting racial conflict, was jailed again in 2020. But less than a year later, he was released by the military - and showered with honours and cash by Min Aung Hlaing.
Min Aung Hlaing's coup in February 2021 provoked a huge public backlash, with massive rallies demanding a return to democratic rule that was brutally crushed. The 67-year-old general has since sought to bolster his legitimacy by presenting himself as a champion of Buddhism.
E)
State-run media have published a steady stream of reports showing the diminutive dictator lavishing gifts on temples and serving as a pallbearer at the funerals of senior abbots.
He was also seen laying the foundation stone for the world's giant seated Buddha statue in the capital, Nay Pyi Taw, which his military government funded.
Myanmar's highest religious body, the ruling Buddhist Council or State Sangha, has said little publicly about the coup. Some members are believed to have quietly urged restraint on the generals. However, one senior monk in the Sangha, Sitagu Sayadaw, has openly supported the military and even travelled with Min Aung Hlaing on an arms-buying trip to Russia.
Other monks have gone further. One of Wirathu's followers, Wathawa, has helped set up armed militias in his home state of Sagaing to challenge the volunteer People's Defence Forces that have sprung up across the state to fight the junta.
Photos posted on social media show the disturbing image of saffron-robed monks being shown how to fire guns.
F)
The militias - named Pyusawhti after a mythological Burmese king - have been accused of forcibly recruiting local men and committing numerous atrocities against civilians. But they have only taken root in the few communities where the military's party is traditionally strong. They also appear ineffective in countering widespread and organised opposition to military rule.
One man contacted by the BBC in the area where Wathawa has been mobilising since early 2022 said he had only been able to recruit a maximum of 10-15 men in each village, and then only by threatening to burn down their homes.
He said many of the recruits had run away and were being helped by other villagers to hide from Wathawa and his armed monks.
G)
An army in retreat
Now, the army's shambolic performance in recent battles with ethnic armed groups is sowing doubt in the minds of its supporters.
A prominent blogger recently called Min Aung Hlaing "incompetent" and said that under him, the country had suffered loss and shame of historic proportions, for which he should pay the price and step down.
He was referring to the vast swathes of territory in northern Shan State seized by insurgents from the Brotherhood Alliance, three ethnic armies that now control much of the border with China.
H)
They launched their operation in October last year, culminating in the surrender of thousands of soldiers and all their equipment. The bloody two-year stalemate between the well-equipped armed forces and the hundreds of volunteer groups that had risen and joined the ethnic insurgents to fight the junta appeared to have been broken.
In the first weeks of this year, the army continued to withdraw. On the other side of the country, near the Bangladesh border, the Arakan Army, one of the three groups in the alliance, has taken over several military bases, giving it control over large areas of Chin and Rakhine states.
I)
It has released videos showing bedraggled troops in shabby uniforms being led away, handcuffed with zip ties, and vast caches of captured weapons and ammunition.
Unable to secure roads from ambush, the military relies on its limited number of helicopters to resupply surrounded bases and on air strikes to defend them, causing widespread civilian casualties. Insurgents in Kachin State say they have shot down a helicopter and a fighter jet this month.
Some surrendering soldiers turned out to be mixed units with little combat experience. The fact that many were also living in these bases with their families suggests they were unprepared to fight.
Hundreds chose to flee across the border to India; thousands surrendered without a fight. Six generals defeated in Shan State were subsequently photographed drinking toasts with their captors, looking more relieved than humiliated. After being handed back to the army, three of them were sentenced to death and the other three to life imprisonment, presumably in the hope of deterring others from surrendering.
Such reversals are unprecedented in the 75-year history of the Myanmar military's campaigns against insurgents. Morale in the ranks has collapsed. Recruitment is proving difficult in these circumstances.
J)
Allies turned enemies?
So should Myanmar's coup leader be worried about these disaffected voices?
Pauk Ko Taw's bold criticism from last week's stage seems to have struck a nerve. He was subsequently detained and questioned by soldiers but quickly released, suggesting he had some robust backing. While state media covered his rally, his comments about Min Aung Hlaing were not.
General Soe Win, the man Pauk Ko Taw urged to take command of the army, is said to be unhappy with the poor performance of his troops.
But he has not indicated that he is prepared to usurp his boss's role. For now, that seems unlikely to change.
K)
Min Aung Hlaing has also proved adept at promoting and sidelining potential rivals. Last September, the general once seen as his most likely successor, Moe Myint Tun, was suddenly arrested and later sentenced to life in prison for corruption.
Despite the dreams of the junta's most ardent supporters - of a knight in shining armour coming to restore morale in the ranks - there is no successor in sight.
Even after shocking defeats on the battlefield, Min Aung Hlaing has continued to preside over official functions in a manner more akin to a monarch than a military commander.
Whether this is due to his confidence or isolation from reality, the military cannot afford further losses on the scale of the past three months.
The collapse of the junta's forces, whether in Lashio, the main town in northern Shan State, which is now surrounded; in Rakhine State in the west; or Karenni State on the border with Thailand, where insurgents are close to taking the state capital of Loikaw, could lead to a much broader collapse in military morale - and the eventual implosion of the regime.
