The Next Global Superpower Isn't Who You Think | Ian Bremmer | TED
Who runs the world? Political scientist Ian Bremmer argues it's not as simple as it used to be. With some eye-opening questions about the nature of leadership, he asks us to consider the impact of the evolving global order and our choices as participants in the future of democracy.
//Summary -Level-C2//
Political scientist Ian Bremmer challenges the traditional notion of global superpowers in this TED Talk. He highlights the evolving international order in which the US was once the sole superpower following the collapse of the Soviet Union. Bremmer explains that today's world is leaderless due to factors such as Russia's decline, China's assertiveness and discontent with globalisation. He predicts three overlapping world orders: a unipolar security order led by the US, a multipolar economic order involving the US, China, Europe and others, and a critical digital order shaped by technology companies. Bremmer raises concerns about the influence and responsibility of these technology giants and emphasises the need for ethical choices in the digital age.
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I have a big question. Who runs the world? It used to be an easy question to answer. If you're over 45, like me, you grew up in a world dominated by two giants. The United States called the shots on one side of the wall, and the Soviets made the rules on the other. And it was a bipolar world.
It's straightforward. If you're under 45, you grew up when the Soviet Union had already collapsed, and that left the United States as the sole superpower, dominating global institutions and also exercising raw power. And it was a unipolar world. And then, about 15 years ago, things got a bit more complicated.
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The United States increasingly didn't want to be the world's policeman, the architect of global trade, or even the cheerleader for global values. Other countries were becoming more powerful, and they could increasingly ignore many of the rules they didn't like and sometimes even make new rules themselves.
So what happened? Three things. First, Russia was not integrated into Western institutions. A former great power is now seriously declining, and they are angry about it. We can argue about whose fault that is, but we are where we are. Number two, China has been integrated into US-led institutions on the assumption that as they get more prosperous and more powerful, they will become American.
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It turns out they're still Chinese. (Laughter) And the United States is not very comfortable with that. Thirdly, tens of millions of citizens in the United States and other rich democracies have felt left behind by globalisation. They were ignored for decades. But as a result, they felt their governments and leaders were more illegitimate.
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Now, if you look at all the headlines today that are driving all this geopolitical tension and conflict, over 90 per cent of them are caused by these three reasons. That's why we live in a leaderless world today. But as we know, that's not going to last for long. So what comes next? What kind of world order can we expect in the next ten years? Some of what I have to say may surprise you.
Because we're not going to have a bipolar world, a unipolar world, or even a multipolar world if we don't have one or two superpowers. We don't have a single global order. No, instead, we're going to have three different orders, overlapping a little bit, and the third one will be of immense importance to how we live, what we think, what we want and what we're prepared to do to get it.
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But first, today, we have a global security order. As you can see from the map, the United States and its allies are the most potent players. The US is the only country in the world that can send its soldiers, labour, and military equipment to every corner of the world. No one else comes close.
China is building up its military capabilities in Asia but nowhere else. Many of America's allies in Asia are worried about this. And as a result, they're becoming more dependent on the United States for a security umbrella. With the Russian invasion of Ukraine, US allies in Europe are becoming more concerned and more dependent on the United States and a US-led NATO.
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The Russian military, of course, has been a more significant global concern, much less so today, especially as they've lost over 200,000 troops and all that equipment, and with sanctions making it extremely difficult for them to rebuild. Now Russia, China, and others have nuclear weapons but thank God it is still suicide to use them.
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As a result, our security order is unipolar and is likely to remain so for the next decade. Now, at the same time as there's a security order, there's also a global economic order. And this is where power is shared. The United States is still a very robust global economy. But the US can't use its military dominance to tell other countries what to do economically.
The United States and China are so economically interdependent that they can't control each other. You may be surprised to hear this, but today, US-China trade relations are at their highest level in history. Now, many other countries want access to the US military muscle, but they also wish to access the Chinese market, soon, by 2030, likely to be the largest in the world.
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And you can't very well have a Cold War if the US and the Chinese are the only two willing to fight it. Really? Yes. So, the European Union has the most significant single market, and they make the rules. And if you want to do profitable business there, you play by those rules. India is playing a more significant economic role on the world stage.
Japan is still important. And over the next decade, there will be a rise and fall in the relative capacities of these economies. But the global economic order is and will remain multipolar. There are tensions between these two orders because the United States will use its national security power to try to bring more of the world's economies into its fold.
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And we are already seeing the beginnings of this in semiconductors and critical minerals, and perhaps soon in TikTok. The Chinese are trying to use their dominant commercial position to align more of the world diplomatically. And Japan, Europe, India and everyone else will do their best to ensure that neither order dominates the other.
And most of the time, they will succeed. Now, so far, I've talked to you about the two world orders that we can already see, but there's a third that's coming, and it's even more critical. And that is the digital order. And the digital order is not run by governments. Technology companies run it. We all know how much military support NATO countries gave to Ukraine during the war.
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But technology companies provided the tools that allowed Ukraine to defend itself against Russian cyber-attacks. It's technology companies that gave Ukrainian leaders the ability to talk to their generals and their soldiers on the front lines. If it weren't for these technology companies, Ukraine would have been entirely offline within weeks of the war.
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And I don't think President Zelensky would still be there today. Technology companies are deciding whether Donald Trump can talk to hundreds of millions of people in real-time, without filters, as he runs for the presidency again. It's social media platforms and their ability to spread disinformation and conspiracy theories.
Without them, we do not have riots at the Capitol on January 6. We don't have trucker riots in Ottawa. We do not have a January 8 uprising in Brazil. Technology companies are increasingly defining our identities. When I was growing up, it was nature or nurture. I mean, my deep and abiding emotional problems either come from the way I was raised - (laughter) or from some genetic failure. (Laughter) It could be both. (Laughter)
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But today, our identities are determined by nature and nurture and algorithms. If you want to challenge the system, you can't just question authority, as we were all told growing up. Today, you have to ask the algorithm, which is a staggering amount of power in the hands of these technology companies.
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What will they do with this power? And that depends on who they want to be when they grow up. So, suppose China and the United States work to exert much more control over the digital world, and technology companies in those countries align themselves with those governments. In that case, we will end up with a technological cold war. And that means the digital order will be split in two.
If, on the other hand, technology companies insist on global business models and we maintain competition between the digital and physical worlds, we will have a new globalisation, a digital international order. Or if the digital order becomes increasingly dominant and governments' governability erodes. We've already seen the beginnings of this: technology companies will become the chief actors on the global stage in every way, and we'll have a techno-polar order.
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And that will determine whether we have a world of limitless opportunity or a world without freedom. Now, in my speech, I'm supposed to be talking about the good news. (Laughter) But those of you who have heard it know that it is not coming. (Laughter) There is no pause button on these explosive and disruptive technologies.
I don't know if you know this, but there are over 100 people in the world today who have the knowledge and the technology to create a new smallpox virus. Frankly, I don't have the answers, but I do have some questions for the people who do. Because these technology companies are not just Fortune 50 and 100 players.
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These technology titans are not just men worth $50 billion or $100 billion or more. They are increasingly the most influential people on the planet, influencing our future. And we need to know: will they act responsibly as they unleash new and powerful artificial intelligence? What will they do with the unprecedented amount of data they collect about us and our environment? And the one that I think should concern us all the most right now: will they continue with these advertising models that are generating.
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And the one that I think should concern us all the most right now: will they continue with these advertising models that generate so much revenue, that turn citizens into products, that fuel hate and misinformation and tear our society apart? (Applause)
When I was a student in 1989, and the wall came down, the United States was the leading exporter of democracy in the world. Not always successful. Often hypocritical.
But number one nonetheless. Today, the United States has become the leading exporter of tools to destroy democracy. Are the technological leaders who create and control these tools okay with this? Or are they going to do something about it? We need to know. Thank you very much. (Cheers and applause)
The Next Global Superpower Isn't Who You Think | Ian Bremmer | TED
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uiUPD-z9DTg
//Postscript//
If you look at it from another perspective, you could say that we are in an environment where we can make our own decisions.
The whole world is connected through the Internet, and we can get information instantly through the common language of English.
We can see a lot of information and data, even if it's just misinformation or conspiracy theories or just biased national, religious or racial information.
It's also a double-edged sword.
Previously, information was only disseminated through newspapers, radio and television in each country and local area.
We received similar information, had similar opinions and could act similarly.
Of course, we had no way of knowing in detail what was happening in the world.
We could only see the history of the winners, not only of the future but also of past events.
We have to be more innovative and can decipher information more deeply.
We have to assess what countries are doing and what they want to do, what IT companies are doing and what some influential people are doing.
If we make the worst choices, will nature and time forgive us?
What excellent and good choices should we make to make people worldwide happy?
Even if we have unforgettable hatred and grudges and are always thinking about revenge or war, deep down, we all want to spend each day in peace, happiness, and contentment.
We need to think of ways to comfort the unhealed souls.
After all, when we are born and die from "nothingness," we return to "nothingness."
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Q1. What do you think we should do to prevent giant IT companies from running out of control?
Please list five specific ideas.
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Addressing the power and influence of giant IT companies requires careful regulation and international cooperation. Here are five specific ideas to prevent these companies from running out of control:
Stricter Regulations: Implement and enforce robust regulations that govern the collection, storage, and use of user data. Enforce penalties for non-compliance to ensure companies prioritise user privacy and data security.
Antitrust Measures: Break up monopolistic practices and prevent mergers that could lead to excessive market dominance. Promote healthy competition in the tech industry to foster innovation and prevent a single company from controlling essential services.
Transparency and Accountability: Mandate transparency in algorithms and decision-making processes. IT companies should disclose how algorithms work and be accountable for the content they promote. Establish independent audits to ensure fairness and prevent biases.
Global Standards: Encourage international collaboration to establish common global standards for data privacy, cybersecurity, and content moderation. Multilateral agreements can create a unified approach to regulating IT companies across borders.
Promote Open Source and Decentralisation: Support open-source technologies and decentralised platforms that empower users and reduce the influence of centralised corporations. Encourage the development of alternative media that prioritise user control and privacy.
Implementing these measures collectively can help mitigate the unchecked power of giant IT companies and create a more balanced and accountable digital ecosystem.
Q2. What should be done to stop people who want revenge or war?
Please list five specific ideas.
A2->
Preventing individuals or nations from seeking revenge or engaging in war requires a multifaceted approach focusing on diplomacy, conflict resolution, and addressing root causes. Here are five specific ideas to promote peace and discourage vengeful attitudes:
Promote Education and Empathy: Invest in education that fosters empathy, tolerance, and understanding of different cultures and perspectives. Encourage programs that teach conflict resolution skills, emotional intelligence, and peaceful coexistence.
Diplomatic Engagement: Prioritise diplomatic dialogue and peaceful negotiations to resolve international disputes. Encourage nations to engage in diplomatic talks, mediation, and conflict prevention initiatives facilitated by neutral parties like international organisations and mediators.
Economic Development and Poverty Alleviation: Address socio-economic disparities by promoting economic development, job opportunities, and poverty alleviation programs. Financial stability can reduce frustration and despair, often underlying factors in conflicts and vengeful sentiments.
Promote Human Rights and Social Justice: Uphold human rights principles and promote social justice within societies. Addressing discrimination, inequality, and injustice can help mitigate feelings of revenge and promote a sense of fairness and equality.
International Cooperation and Peacebuilding: Strengthen international cooperation in peacebuilding efforts. Support initiatives focusing on conflict prevention, peace education, and community reconciliation. Provide resources and expertise to regions affected by potential conflicts, promoting stability and cooperation.
By focusing on education, diplomacy, economic development, human rights, and international cooperation, societies can work towards preventing revengeful attitudes and fostering a culture of peace and understanding.
Q3. Even though we are taking these measures, why do you think we are still unable to stop the rampage of IT companies and wars in various countries?
Please list three reasons and suggest countermeasures for each.
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Lack of Effective Global Governance:
Countermeasure: Strengthen international institutions and cooperation. Encourage countries to collaborate on creating and enforcing global regulations for IT companies, ensuring consistency in policies related to data privacy, cybersecurity, and antitrust measures. Similarly, it enhances the effectiveness of international organisations like the United Nations in conflict prevention, resolution, and peacekeeping. Support efforts to reform these institutions to address modern challenges better.
Corporate Lobbying and Political Influence:
Countermeasure: Increase transparency and accountability in political funding. Enforce strict regulations on lobbying activities, ensuring transparency in interactions between corporations and policymakers. Implement campaign finance reforms to reduce the influence of big corporations on political decisions. Encourage public awareness and education on the impact of corporate power on policy-making to foster an informed electorate.
Deep-rooted Socio-economic and Cultural Factors:
Countermeasure: Focus on education and social reform. Invest in comprehensive education programs that promote critical thinking, media literacy, and ethical decision-making. Address socio-economic disparities by implementing policies that provide equal opportunities, access to education, and healthcare. Promote cultural understanding and tolerance through grassroots initiatives, community dialogues, and cultural exchange programs to reduce prejudice and mitigate factors that contribute to conflicts and corporate misconduct.
Addressing these underlying issues requires a concerted effort from governments, civil society, and international organisations. By tackling these challenges at their roots, it's possible to create a more equitable and peaceful global environment.
Q4. What factors prevent us from creating a just and peaceful world?
What do you think is the fundamental problem?
Please list three problems and suggest solutions.
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Creating a just and peaceful world is a complex task that involves addressing deep-seated issues. Here are three fundamental problems and potential solutions:
Lack of Empathy and Understanding:
Solution: Promote empathy education from an early age, integrating it into school curricula worldwide. Encourage cultural exchange programs, dialogue initiatives, and media campaigns to foster understanding and tolerance among communities. Encourage diverse representation in media and education materials to break stereotypes and biases.
Inequality and Injustice:
Solution: Implement policies that address socio-economic disparities, ensuring equal access to education, healthcare, and job opportunities. Strengthen social safety nets to support vulnerable populations. Enforce anti-discrimination laws and promote social justice to create a more equitable society. Support community-based initiatives that empower marginalised groups and provide them with resources and opportunities.
Lack of Effective Global Governance:
Solution: Strengthen international institutions and promote multilateral cooperation—reform existing global organisations to enhance their effectiveness in addressing contemporary challenges. Encourage countries to collaborate on global issues such as climate change, poverty, and conflict resolution. Support diplomatic efforts and peaceful negotiations, investing in conflict prevention and resolution mechanisms. Advocate for the rule of law and international treaties to be respected globally, ensuring accountability for violations.
Addressing these fundamental problems requires a collective effort from governments, civil society, and individuals worldwide. By promoting empathy, addressing inequality, and strengthening global governance, organisations can work towards a more just and peaceful world.
Q5. Do you think that we will never be able to overcome wars and poverty? Eventually, the human race will become extinct due to food crises and natural disasters due to global warming.
Do you think the oceans are doomed to die, and life on Earth will become extinct like on Mars?
What do you think we should do until then?
What are three things we should do before then?
A5->
The challenges of war, poverty, and environmental degradation are significant, but it's crucial to remain optimistic and proactive in addressing them. While the future is uncertain, there are steps humanity can take to mitigate these issues:
Address Climate Change Urgently:
Action: Accelerate efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, transition to renewable energy sources, and invest in sustainable technologies. International collaboration is essential to meet climate targets outlined in agreements like the Paris Agreement. Promote reforestation, conservation, and sustainable agricultural practices to protect biodiversity and combat desertification.
Promote Education and Empathy:
Action: Invest in education that fosters empathy, critical thinking, and global awareness. Compassion can lead to better understanding between nations and cultures, reducing the likelihood of conflicts. Support educational initiatives on environmental conservation, sustainable development, and social justice. Informed and compassionate citizens are more likely to contribute positively to their communities and the planet.
Foster Inclusivity and Equality:
Action: Implement policies that promote social equality, inclusivity, and access to necessities such as education, healthcare, and clean water. Support initiatives that empower marginalised communities, ensuring they have equal opportunities. Address systemic inequalities and discrimination to create a more just society. Empower women and girls, as their education and participation in decision-making processes positively impact communities and economies.
While the challenges are daunting, humanity's ability to adapt, innovate, and collaborate offers hope. By taking collective action, raising awareness, and fostering a sense of responsibility toward the planet and its inhabitants, we can work toward a more sustainable and equitable future.
